Our Deteriorating Economic Outlook: Serious Inflation On the Horizon

Editor's Note

​Have you noticed that prices seem to be rising faster than the official inflation numbers?

Independent of increasing prices, with food price increases are hidden two additional ways:  (1) reducing quantity or weight yet offering it with a similar price; and (2) reformulating the ingredients of a processed food with cheaper, and often unhealthier ingredients.

Please read and pay attention to this article by Dr Paul Craig Roberts, Guest Columnist, with Dave Kranzler and John Williams of www. shadowstats.com​.

The Deteriorating Economic Outlook

By Paul Craig Roberts, Guest Columnist (former Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury), Dave Kranzler (www.investmentresearchdynamics.com) and John Williams (www.shadowstats.com)

July 8, 2014​

The third and final estimate (until the annual GDP revisions) of first quarter 2014 real GDP growth released June 25 by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis was a 2.9% contraction in GDP growth, a 5.5 percentage point difference from the January forecast of 2.6% growth. Apparently, the first quarter contraction was dismissed by those speculating in equities as weather related, as stock averages rose with the bad news.

Stock market participants might be in for a second quarter surprise. The result of many years of changes made to the official inflation measures is a substantially understated inflation rate. John Williams (www.shadowstats.com) provides inflation estimates based on previous official methodology when the Consumer Price Index still represented the cost of a constant standard of living. The 1.26% inflation measure used to deflate first quarter nominal GDP is unrealistic, as Americans who make purchases are aware.

A reasonable correction to the understated deflator gives a much higher first quarter contraction. The two main causes of inflation’s understatement are the substitution principle introduced during the Clinton regime and the hedonic adjustments ongoing since the 1980s that redefine price rises as quality improvements. Correcting for excessive hedonic adjustments gives a first quarter real GDP contraction of 5%. Correcting for hedonic and substitution adjustments gives a first quarter real GDP contraction of 8.5%.

Realistic economic analysis is a rarity. The financial press echoes Wall Street, and Wall Street economists are paid to help sell financial instruments. Gloomy analysis is frowned upon. Even negative quarters are given a positive spin.

Years of understatement of inflation has resulted in years of overstatement of GDP growth. Thinking about the many years of misstatement, we realized that the typical computation in nominal terms of the ratio of debt to GDP is seriously misleading.

Consider that debt is issued in nominal terms and repaid in nominal terms (except for a few Treasury bonds with inflation adjustments). However, nominal wealth or nominal GDP overstates real economic strength. The debt is growing, but both the nominal and real values of the output of goods and services are not keeping up with the rise in debt.

To understand how risky the rise of debt is, nominal debt must be compared to real GDP. Spin masters might dismiss this computation as comparing apples to oranges, but such a charge constitutes denial that the ratio of nominal debt to nominal GDP understates the wealth dilution caused by the government’s ability to issue and repay debt in nominal dollars. We know that inflation favors debtors, because debts can be repaid in inflated dollars.


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Where Thrive Foods Are Grown: Food Country of Origin

Where Thrive Foods Are Grown:  Food Country of Origin

Thrive Tomatoes

Have you ever noticed that many foods you buy in the traditional grocery store or even the not so traditional grocery store fail to tell you the food country of origin for the product?

Have you noticed that in some grocery brand store foods, even those that are labeled organic or non-GMO that they will have some third party organic certifying company, such as QAI, seal on the food but the food country of origin is missing?

Why is that important?  Well, even if a foreign farm is trying to use organic growing practices, what if their water supply is not the purest?  Look on youtube at multiple videos at the quality of water that fishing and agriculture farmers have access to in Southeast Asia.

Water and Air Pollution

Chinese Cancer Villages from Pollution

Comprehensive Report on How Extensive the Heavy Metals & Other Pollution Has Invaded Food Grown in China

 Cancer is now the no. 1 killer in China, and its growing at a rapid rate, with a good portion of those deaths attributed to pollution.


(I apologize for the Pearl Report news documentary being taken down by YouTube.  I suspect the Chinese government complained as this issue is one of their “state sensitive” issues.  The Pearl Report, equivalent to our NBC Dateline,  still has other videos on YouTube that are running.  I have uploaded this on my website.  If you have any difficulty running the video by it being hosted on my server, let me know so I can work on a fix.  This documentary is extremely important so you can see how seriously contaminated is the food from China.)

Inspect Me Not

Despite this alarming situation the U.S. Government inspects less than 2% of the food we import from China. This is despite that the Chinese people don’t trust their own food supply. (Add to this the fact that in general there is a quality control problem with Chinese imports, as more than 50% of the product recalls ordered by the Consumer Product Safety Division were manufactured in China.)

I encourage you to watch this short video about the holes within our system:


Did you notice that foreign Asian food processing facilities had workers smoking while working or dropped food on the floor, picked it up and put it back into the production line?  And those issues do not deal with the heavy metal toxins and chemicals foods are exposed to in China!

China is one of the major importers of food into the US!

Does that alarm you?  We’re blessed with much cleaner water supplies than most countries in the world.   We just can’t assume that everyone is as blessed as we are.

A food’s country of origin is something that one might want to factor in before one eats a food item.  I know I do.  I do not want to eat anything from China.  I also want to avoid as much as possible any food or fish from Southeast Asia.

What about you?  Does the food country of origin matter?

One thing I appreciate about Thrive Foods is that the company publishes the country of origin of its food line.  That way if I don’t like where they source the particular food item, I don’t have to buy the product.

None of Thrive’s Foods are imported from China.

Here is our most current Thrive Products Detail report.  This report discloses more information than required, such as Country of Origin.


How many other freeze dried food, long term food storage companies  or food producers and grocery stores give full disclosure as to the source of each of their ingredients?  Sure, their food items may be packaged or processed in the US, but are their food ingredients grown in the US?  Does a customer service representative just make the verbal representation or do they put the food country of origin in writingWhich do you prefer, verbal representations (which can lead to misunderstandings) or having the representations in writing?

“We Vote on Our Health With Our Dollars!”™

Click here to go to my Thrive Life/Shelf Reliance store:

Save Up to 45% on Freeze Dried Food



Follow the Money: Countries Purchasing Gold Reserves

Follow the Money:  Countries Purchasing Gold Reserves

Have you ever heard the saying that “Actions speak louder than words.”  I heard that countless times in my parents’ home.

And as an attorney although I listen to what someone says, I am always analyzing their actions and looking for patterns.  If you want a better understanding of someone, just look at their pattern and practice.  It is the fingerprint or the DNA of their mindset and deeds.

Let’s face it the main rival to the US Dollar in the global currency and trade markets is gold.  The growing value central bankers and nations are putting into this shinny metal by increasing, if not hoarding the metal speaks volumes.  (See article by Jeff Clark below)  Do you see these nations hoarding US Dollars or trying to unload them?  Has the Chinese been on a buying spree trying to get rid of our currency?

If you think this does not affect you, I’m sorry, but you’re sadly mistaken.  At a minimum it affects inflation in various economic sectors.  It affects your purchasing power.  What else does it affect?  Think about it!  –No Name Attorney


By Jeff Clark of Casey Research 

Bloomberg reported last week that Russia is now the world’s biggest gold buyer with its central bank having added 570 tonnes (18.3 million troy ounces) over the past decade. At $1,650/ounce, that’s $30.1 billion worth of gold.

Russia isn’t alone, of course. Central banks as a group have been net buyers for at least two years now. But the 2012 data trickling out shows that the amount of tonnage being added is breaking records.

The following table lists the countries that have added to their gold reserves this year, while the second one tallies those that have been selling. You’ll see how recently each country has reported, along with its percentage increase.

Table: Changes in Central Bank Gold Reserves in 2012 (Million Troy Ounces)

Even Russia and former communist nations are getting in the act. Look what the BRIICS nations are doing.

(Click to enlarge)

Based on current data, the net increase in central bank gold buying for 2012 was 14.8 million troy ounces – and that’s before the final 2012 figures are in for all countries.

This is a dramatic increase, one bigger than most investors probably realize. To put it in perspective, on a net basis, central banks added more to their reserves last year than any time since 1964(emphasis added)  The net increase – so far – is 17% greater than what was added in 2011, which was itself a year of record buying.

Here’s a picture of total central bank reserves since the financial crisis hit:

CHart: World Central Bank Buying Since 2008

Actions speak louder than words. What does this tell you? Why do you think they’e doing this?

  (Click to enlarge)

Whatever gold’s price movements, positive or negative, central bank officials have continued adding a lot of ounces to their reserves.

But this understates the case, because most of the data exclude China, as well as a few other small countries. China last officially reported gold reserves in 2009, so the totals in the chart since then exclude whatever its purchases might have been.

Here’s where it gets interesting: Bloomberg claimed that Russia has been a bigger buyer of gold over the past decade than China – by a full 25%. Based on data about gold imports through Hong Kong and the fact that, for the most part, Chinese production doesn’t leave the country, it seemed to me that this could not be right.

The Chinese central bank holds an official 1,054 tonnes of gold in its reserves. Bloomberg states, based on IMF data, that China has added somewhere around 425 tonnes over the past decade.

I can’t say exactly what the correct number is, but the Bloomberg number almost has to be wrong. Here’s why:

  • Gold imports through Hong Kong in December alone hit a record high of 109.8 tonnes.
  • Imports for 2012 also hit a record high of 572.5 tonnes.
  • If you add 2012 mine production –  remember that China is now the world’s largest gold producer – roughly 970 tonnes of gold was delivered to various entities within the country last year.
  • Cumulative imports since 2001 have reached 1,352 tonnes.
  • Since 2001, imports plus production total a whopping 4,793 tonnes.

So Bloomberg is essentially saying that roughly 10% of the total gold available inside the country during that period was added to China’s reserves. While it’s true that Chinese citizens are buying a lot of gold (though perhaps more silver), it’s highly doubtful that private parties bought 90% of all the gold brought to the Chinese market during this period. I think – but can’t prove – that China’s central bank is buying more gold and at a faster pace than its Russian counterpart.

Jim Rickards, hedge fund manager and highly respected author of Currency Wars, said last month that China has probably already accumulated between 2,000 and 3,000 tonnes of additional gold reserves. If he’s right, that would be roughly double or triple the 1,054 tonnes it reported in 2009 – not the 40% increase Bloomberg’s numbers suggest.

At the very least, we can say that the Bloomberg report left consideration of China’s imports and production out of its report naming Russia the top gold buyer of 2012. Okay…but so what?

Well, Jim thinks the next big catalyst for gold will be an announcement from China about its reserve position. Here’s what he told me in late December:

“The catalyst for a spike into the $2,500 to $3,000 price range for gold will be an announcement by China, probably in late 2013 or 2014, that they have acquired 4,000 tonnes or more in their official reserve position. This will put China on an equal footing with the US in terms of a gold-to-GDP ratio, and validate gold as the real foundation of the international monetary system. Once that position is validated, gold will move to the $7,000 range in 2015 and beyond.”

Even if Jim’s estimate is high or China doesn’t make an announcement until later, it’s clear that central banks around the world are buying gold in record quantities.

It almost makes you wonder… do they know something we don’t?

The Russians gave us some hints:

Evgeny Fedorov, a lawmaker for Putin’s United Russia Party, said last week, “The more gold a country has, the more sovereignty it will have if there’s a cataclysm with the dollar, the euro, the pound, or any other reserve currency.”

President Vladimir Putin told his central bank not to “shy away” from the metal, adding, “After all, they’re called gold and currency reserves for a reason.”

The Chinese have been quiet on this topic recently, after being very vocal a few years ago. Here’s a recent quote:

“The current international currency system is the product of the past,” said Hu Jintao, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China.

Others have provided clues as well:

“We’re in the midst of an international currency war,” said Guido Mantega, finance minister of Brazil.

“Quantitative easing also works through exchange rates… The Fed could engage in much more aggressive quantitative easing, to further lower the dollar,” said Christina Romer, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisors.

Yes, we’re talking about the US dollar. Perhaps some investors have gotten complacent about the risks to the world’s reserve currency – but not central bankers. It’s not hard to see why: whether they admit it or not, central bankers must know what it means to run the printing presses the way the US has since 2008, even if price inflation is not immediately obvious. It’s no surprise they want to hedge their bets, moving more reserves into something with actual value… something that can’t be debased by a few computer keystrokes by an increasingly unfriendly government.

The US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency since WWII. That’s beginning to change, and the movement into gold is just one facet of that change. The buying by central banks is exactly what one would expect to see as we approach the end of the dollar hegemony.

The message from central banks is clear: they expect the dollar to move inexorably lower. It doesn’t matter that it’s been holding up against other currencies or that the economy might be getting better. They’re buying gold in record amounts because they see a significant shift coming with the status of the dollar, and they need to protect themselves against that risk.

This leads to a second message: gold is not overpriced, in spite of the 500%+ increase since 2001. Indeed, with the recent correction, central banks are likely buying more, even as you read this.

Central bank gold buying will continue, of that we’re certain. Even after Putin’s binge, gold accounts for only 9.5% of Russia’s total reserves. China’s 1,054 tonnes is roughly 2% of its reserves. It’s clear that both countries, along with others, have decided to accumulate as much gold as they can, as quickly as they can, before the dollar’s decline becomes more pronounced… and permanent. This could explain why some central banks don’t publicize their purchases. It also means that Bloomberg and other mainstream media outlets could be caught off guard when China announces higher gold reserves than expected – perhaps much higher.

Clearly we should take notice. If central banks are preparing for a major change in the value of the dollar, shouldn’t we? The fact remains that the US dollar cannot and will not survive the ongoing abuse heaped upon it by government planners and federal officials. That not only means the gold price will rise, but that many, if not most currencies, will lose a significant amount of purchasing power. This has direct implications for all of us.

Embrace the messages central bankers are telling us – the ones they tell with their actions, not their words. Buy gold. Your financial future may very well depend upon it.

Jeff Clark is the editor of BIG GOLD, Casey Research’s monthly advisory on gold, silver, and large-cap precious metals stocks. 

For ongoing guidance about physical gold and silver, as well as the large-cap precious metals stocks, try BIG GOLD today for just $129 per year, with 3-month money-back guarantee.  

Why You Should Avoid Imported Foods From China

Here is an article by Mike Adams of www.Natural News.com that I think is worth reading regarding imported foods from China and the environment in which these foods are grown.

Many major companies import food from China, i.e., Green Giant brand.  Read the label carefully.  “Packed in the USA” does not mean grown in the USA.  When you see “Packed in the USA” without identifying the country the food was grown, you can assume that the food processor thinks if you knew you would not buy their product, i.e., China, Southeast Asia.  So read your labels carefully!   It’s a matter of you having good health! —No Name Atty.


‘Organic’ from China exposed: The shocking truth about ‘organic’ foods grown in  the world’s worst environmental cesspool

(NaturalNews) When it comes to foods, superfoods and even nutritional  supplements from China, “organic” is largely a hoax. This is my opinion, of  course, but I’ve been researching the issue quite extensively as the key  decision maker for new products in the Natural News Store. And I’ve come to the  conclusion that “organic” from China is largely a fraud. Here’s  why…

First off, you’re going to be shocked to learn that there is no  limit to how much mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic and aluminum is allowed in  “organic” products.

It’s a fact: USDA organic standards place NO  LIMITS on levels of heavy metals contamination of certified organic foods. Even  further, there is no limit on the contamination of PCBs, BPA and other synthetic  chemicals that’s allowed in certified organic foods, superfoods and  supplements.


Outstanding SALE! Ultimate Veggie Pack-While Supplies Last

Outstanding Sale!  Ultimate Veggie Pack

From 10/15/2012-November 11, 2012 (ending at Midnight) or

While Supples Last!

Image for the Ultimate Veggie Package Sale

Displayed only are our green beans, broccoli, and spinach. This package includes the following vegetables: Sweet Corn, Sweet Potatoes, Green Peas, Cauliflower, Potato Chunks, Mixed Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Chopped Onions, Split Green Peas, Carrot Dices, Spinach, Potato Beads, and Potato Dices. Package does not include celery in photo.

Item Number:  25355, 30 #10 Cans (Gallon Size)

1,306 Servings! 

Retail: $560.81

Sale Price: $323.49

You Save 42.3%!

(NOTE:  This package is available for US Mainland, Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico customers only) 

That’s right-no Typo! (Please re-read the above)

Can you imagine this bargain while your traditional grocery store is passing along the higher food prices to you now (from the earlier in the year highest recorded gasoline prices)?

Here are the vegetables you get in this great sale on the Ultimate Veggie Pack:

3 Sweet Corn (FD)

3 Sweet Potatoes

2 Green Peas (FD)

2 Cauliflower (FD)

2 Potato Chunks

2 Mixed Bell Peppers

2 Broccoli (FD)

1 Chopped Onions

1 Split Green Peas

4 Carrot Dices

2 Spinach (FD)

4 Potato Beads

2 Potato Dices (FD)


(In purchasing this package, you must contact me or one of my team members because it requires us to write a manual order for you to get this deep discount.  We are happy to do this!  Send me a note to thrive@northstate.net (or to the survive-thrive team member) with a note that you want this, your phone number, and best day/time to contact you.  We take your credit or debit card information over the phone.) 

For those with food allergies and other sensitivities, compare the quality of our food by using the Thrive Allergen Report.  Shelf Reliance understands that there is a growing population of people like you and me who have food allergies, sensitivities and desire to avoid genetically modified organisms (GMOs).  It strives to provide as many non-GMO alternatives as possible and goes to great length to cultivate proprietary food sources that are non-GMO.  As this Product Details Chart shows, most of our food is grown in the US.  We do not source any food products from China. The Product Details Chart also shares the Optimum Shelf Life and number of servings per each vegetable for the #10 can.

Let’s get healthier and save money!  It is through wise food, health and economic stewardship that we will weather the food inflation storm that is just beginning.  It is like we are now in a tropical storm that is about to change into a hurricaneThrough planning we mitigate the effects.  This is one of the core principles of this food ministry in helping people.

So please pass this on to your family, friends, co-workers and acquaintances!  Help me and the Survive-Thrive ministry team members help others.  While this outstanding cost savings is available the goal is to have at least 5000 families get this package to help them.  You can help us with that goal by sharing this page and website with others.  Encourage them to join the website’s email list so they can be informed of the bargains and strategies in eating quality, non-GMO food while paying lower prices per serving than the traditional grocery stores.

Finally, I have encountered an incident of Shelf Reliance Consultant who allegedly claimed to be part of the Survive-Thrive ministry team when she is not a member.  If someone says that they are part of the Survive-Thrive ministry team, then I encourage you to write me at Thrive@northstate.net.  I will confirm whether they belong to the team.   Alternatively, you can also call Shelf Reliance at 877-492-3978 and ask them if the person in question is listed as a member of the Survive-Thrive.US consultant team.

I want people who visit this website to work not only with me but ALL of the Survive-Thrive ministry team members. (It’s not about me but Him.)  I do my best to support them with proprietary marketing and strategies to supplement their own efforts at serving Him. These are people who have a passion for the mission and the vision.  Eliminating misunderstandings or misrepresentations is the least that I can do to support them in their ministry efforts.

We look forward to helping you take advantage of this sale on the Ultimate Veggie Pack!


“We Vote on Our Health With Our Dollars!”™

Save Up to 45% on  Thrive Freeze Dried Food